Dealing with project complexity by matrix-based propagation modelling for project risk analysis

Engineering projects are facing a growing complexity and are thus exposed to numerous and interdependent risks. In this paper, we present a quantitative method for modelling propagation behaviour in the project risk network. The construction of the network requires the involvement of the project manager and related experts using the Design Structure Matrix (DSM) method. A matrix-based risk propagation model is introduced to calculate risk propagation and thus to re-evaluate risk characteristics such as probability and criticality. An eigenstructure analysis is also used based on the risk network, with the goal of measuring and prioritising risks with respect to their importance in terms of influence in the network. These supplemental project risk analyses provide project managers with improved insights on risks considering complexity and help them to design more effective response actions. An example of application to a real urban transportation system implementation project is presented to illustrate the utility of the proposed approach.